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The Forty-Day Freeze A Political Crisis and the Cost of American Governance

Monday, 10 November 2025 10:35

Summary

The United States federal government endured its longest shutdown in history, a 40-day political deadlock that began on 1 October 2025 and eclipsed the previous record set during the first Trump administration1,2,3. The crisis was precipitated by a failure to agree on a federal budget, with the core dispute centring on the extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits, a key demand of Senate Democrats3,4,5. The resulting paralysis forced hundreds of thousands of federal employees to work without pay or be furloughed, leading to widespread disruptions in critical services, including a mandated 10 per cent cut in flights at 40 major US airports6,7,8. A bipartisan deal was eventually struck in the Senate, advancing a compromise bill that would fund the government through January 2026 and guarantee back pay for affected workers9,10. The political fallout was significant, with President Donald Trump's approval rating dropping to a second-term low of 37 per cent, while a majority of Americans blamed him and congressional Republicans for the impasse11,12. The episode underscored the deep partisan divisions in Washington and the profound economic and social cost of a dysfunctional appropriations process13.

The Longest Stalemate in American History

The federal government of the United States entered a state of partial shutdown on 1 October 2025, marking the beginning of the new fiscal year without an agreed-upon budget3,14. This funding lapse quickly escalated into the longest government shutdown in the nation’s history, ultimately stretching to 40 days1,2,14. The previous record, a 35-day shutdown, had occurred during the first term of President Donald Trump between 2018 and 20192,5. The immediate cause of the 2025 crisis was the failure of Congress to pass a continuing resolution to keep government operations funded3. The political impasse was rooted in a deep partisan disagreement over federal spending priorities and, crucially, the future of healthcare subsidies4,5. House Republicans had initially proposed a ‘clean’ continuing resolution to fund the government through 21 November, but Senate Democrats refused to advance the legislation without a commitment to address the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits4,5. These credits, which had been expanded during the pandemic, were set to lapse, a change that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated would raise insurance premiums for millions of Americans4,15. The CBO also projected that extending the expansion would increase the number of insured Americans by 3.8 million by 20354. President Trump, who had returned to the White House for a second term, publicly stated that he would not be ‘extorted’ by Democrats and would only discuss the healthcare subsidies after the shutdown had ended5. This hardline stance from the executive branch, coupled with the Democratic insistence on protecting the ACA subsidies, created an intractable deadlock that paralysed the legislative process for over a month5. The shutdown affected numerous government programmes, including national parks and federal research operations, and led to the curtailment of agency activities and services1,2.

The Human and Economic Toll

The immediate and most visible impact of the funding lapse was the financial hardship imposed upon the federal workforce and the disruption of essential public services16. Over 750,000 federal employees were directly affected by the shutdown17. This figure included approximately 730,000 workers who were furloughed without pay and an additional 670,000 essential employees who were required to continue working without receiving a paycheck8,13,15. Essential workers included air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers, whose continued operation was critical for public safety and national security7,16. The lack of pay forced some federal employees to seek out temporary jobs or rely on food banks to make ends meet7,13. The ripple effects extended beyond the federal payroll, as private-sector contractors were idled, and local businesses near federal facilities experienced a sharp decline in revenue13. The economic consequences were substantial, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that the crisis would cost the US economy at least $7 billion by the end of 202613. The CBO further projected that the cost could rise to $14 billion if the shutdown were to continue until the end of November13,15. The travel industry alone lost an estimated $5 billion in travel spending by early November15. The safety of the nation’s airspace became a major point of concern as the shutdown dragged on17. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was already dealing with a longstanding shortage of approximately 3,000 air traffic controllers before the funding crisis began7. Staffing shortages led to a six-hour period on 8 October 2025 where the air traffic control tower at Hollywood Burbank Airport was left unstaffed, forcing pilots to coordinate among themselves13. In response to the mounting stress on the system, the Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy, announced a mandated 10 per cent cut in flights at 40 major US airports, effective from 7 November7,18. This measure was intended to maintain air traffic control safety, but it resulted in more than 3.2 million passengers experiencing delayed or cancelled flights due to air traffic control staffing issues7. The cuts were expected to affect the busiest hubs, including those serving New York City, Washington DC, Chicago, and Los Angeles7. Beyond the immediate economic and travel disruptions, the shutdown also impacted social programmes, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps, which assists more than 42 million lower-income Americans6. Furthermore, the US Forest Service was forced to pause all prescribed burns, a critical measure for mitigating the risk of destructive wildfires, potentially setting the stage for more catastrophic fires in the following year13.

The Senate’s Bipartisan Breakthrough

As the shutdown entered its sixth week, a group of senators, including Democrats and the Independent Angus King of Maine, began negotiating a compromise to break the political logjam9,10. The bipartisan effort was led by Democratic Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, and Senator King, in coordination with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the White House9,10. On Sunday, 9 November 2025, the Senate reached a deal that would resume federal funding and signal an end to the record-long shutdown6,9. The legislative measure, a compromise bill, successfully cleared a procedural hurdle in the Senate, overcoming a filibuster with a vote of 60-401,10. The bill required exactly 60 votes to advance, with nearly all Republicans voting in favour, joined by eight senators who caucus with the Democrats1,10. The agreement was structured as a ‘minibus’ package, which included three full-year appropriations bills for the Agriculture, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and Legislative Branch departments9,10. The remaining government operations would be funded at existing spending levels through a continuing resolution set to expire on 30 January 20269,10. A critical component of the deal for federal workers was the guarantee that all employees laid off during the shutdown would be re-hired and receive back pay, as required by a 2019 law6,10,19. The bill also promised to reverse President Trump’s firings of federal employees that had occurred during the course of the shutdown1,6. The most contentious element of the compromise was the resolution of the healthcare subsidy dispute9. Instead of directly extending the expiring ACA premium tax credits, the deal included a promise that the Senate would hold a vote on a Democratic bill to extend the subsidies by the end of the second week of December6,9,10. This concession was a major point of contention for many Democrats, including Senate Democratic leadership, who voted against advancing the bill6,10. Senator Chuck Schumer, the chamber’s top Democrat, expressed anger that the deal offered a vote on the subsidies rather than a direct extension6. Despite the opposition from their leadership, a sufficient number of Democrats joined Republicans to approve the bill, citing the need to end the funding lapse that was causing widespread harm19. The compromise bill still required approval from the Republican-led House of Representatives and President Trump’s signature before the government could fully reopen1,6.

The Political Reckoning

The protracted shutdown exacted a heavy political price on all parties involved, particularly President Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress12,20. As the crisis deepened, public opinion polls reflected growing dissatisfaction with the political leadership in Washington11,20. A CNN/SSRS poll released on 3 November 2025, found that President Trump’s approval rating had dropped to 37 per cent, the lowest recorded by the network during his second term in office11,12. His disapproval rating reached 63 per cent, just one percentage point shy of his lowest mark ever recorded by CNN12. The survey, conducted as the shutdown was set to become the longest in history, also found that 68 per cent of Americans believed things in the US were going ‘pretty/very badly’12. The public assigned the most blame for the shutdown to the Republican side of the aisle11. An Economist/YouGov poll found that 41 per cent of respondents blamed Republicans in Congress and President Trump for the funding lapse, compared to 30 per cent who blamed Democrats in Congress11. The political damage was not limited to the executive branch20. Amid the standoff, Americans’ approval rating of Congress declined by 11 percentage points to a mere 15 per cent20. The decline in congressional approval was largely driven by a sharp 21-point drop among Republicans20. Despite the negative polling, President Trump remained unfazed, publicly stating that he believed his first nine months in his second term were among the best of any president11. The political dynamics of the shutdown also highlighted the shifting priorities of the American electorate12. While immigration had been a major focus of the Trump administration, only 10 per cent of Americans cited it as a top concern in the CNN/SSRS poll12. The economy and the cost of living were cited as the most important issue facing the country by 47 per cent of Americans12.

Conclusion

The 40-day federal government shutdown of 2025 served as a stark demonstration of the fragility of the American appropriations process when confronted by deep partisan entrenchment1,14. The crisis, driven by a standoff over healthcare subsidies and the federal budget, inflicted billions of dollars in economic damage and placed immense strain on hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the critical services they provide8,13,15. The eventual bipartisan compromise in the Senate, while a necessary step to reopen the government, was a temporary measure that merely postponed the most difficult political decisions until January 20269,10. The deal’s failure to secure a direct extension of the ACA premium tax credits, instead offering only a promise of a future vote, left the core issue unresolved and guaranteed a continuation of the political fight6,9. The political cost was clear, with President Trump’s approval ratings hitting a new low and the public assigning the majority of the blame to the Republican leadership11,12. The episode underscored a fundamental challenge in American governance: the increasing willingness of political factions to use the essential function of funding the government as a high-stakes negotiating tool, regardless of the widespread harm inflicted upon the economy and the citizenry13,17. The resolution of the 2025 shutdown was less a triumph of cooperation and more a temporary ceasefire in an ongoing war over the nation’s fiscal and social priorities10.

References

  1. US Senate Passes Bipartisan Bill to End Historic 40-Day Government Shutdown

    Used to establish the 40-day length of the shutdown, its historic nature, the Senate's bipartisan vote, and the bill's purpose to reauthorise funding and reverse firings.

  2. Government shutdowns in the United States - Wikipedia

    Used to confirm the start date of the shutdown (October 1, 2025) and compare its length to the previous record (35 days in 2018-2019).

  3. The 2025 government shutdown is the longest in US history - USAFacts

    Used to confirm the start date (October 1), the record-breaking length, and the cause being the failure to pass a continuing resolution and the dispute over healthcare provisions, specifically the ACA premium tax credit expansion.

  4. 5 longest government shutdowns in U.S. history

    Used to detail the cause of the shutdown: Senate Democrats refusing to advance a clean CR without addressing expiring ACA plan subsidies and the CBO's estimate of the impact of extending the credit.

  5. The Longest Government Shutdowns in U.S. History - Time Magazine

    Used to confirm the shutdown was the second longest by early November, the core demand of Democrats (ACA subsidies), and President Trump's quote about not being 'extorted'.

  6. Senators reach deal that could end govt shutdown: U.S. media - The Hindu

    Used for details of the bipartisan deal: stopgap agreement to fund government through January, restoring SNAP funding for 42 million Americans, reversing firings, guaranteeing back pay, and the promise of a vote on ACA subsidies. Also used for Chuck Schumer's opposition.

  7. US government shutdown is now longest in history - what impact is it having?

    Used for the impact on air travel: 10% flight cuts at 40 major airports, 3.2 million passengers affected by delays/cancellations, 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 TSA officers working without pay, and federal employees using food banks.

  8. Government shutdown costing the economy billions of dollars each week - CBS News

    Used for the number of federal workers: 670,000 furloughed and 730,000 working without pay (figures slightly different from other sources, used for detail), and the $5 billion loss to the travel industry.

  9. US govt shutdown crisis averted? Senators strike bipartisan deal – all you need to know

    Used for the deal's negotiators (King, Shaheen, Hassan, Thune, White House), the 'minibus' package of three full-year appropriations bills, the CR through January 30, and the promise of a vote on ACA subsidies by the second week of December.

  10. Senate on path to end government shutdown - Colorado Public Radio

    Used to confirm the procedural vote of 60-40, the eight Democrats/Independents who voted with Republicans, the negotiators, the funding through Jan 30, the three full-year appropriations bills, the back pay guarantee, and the promise of a vote on the ACA bill.

  11. Trump's shocking approval rating now after his government shutdown broke his own record

    Used for President Trump's approval rating dropping to 37% (second-term low) in a CNN/SSRS poll, his quote about his first nine months, and the public blaming Republicans/Trump more than Democrats.

  12. Trump approval rating falls to second-term low of 37% - The Guardian

    Used to confirm the 37% approval rating, the 63% disapproval rating, the 68% of Americans saying things are going badly, and the top issues being the economy (47%) and democracy (26%), with immigration at 10%.

  13. The government shutdown is now the longest ever—and the public is paying the price

    Used for the economic cost ($7 billion to $14 billion), the number of furloughed (730,000) and working without pay (670,000) federal workers, the impact on private contractors and local businesses, the Hollywood Burbank Airport incident, and the pausing of US Forest Service prescribed burns.

  14. U.S. Longest Government Shutdown in History as It Enters 40th Day

    Used to confirm the start date (October 1, 2025), the 40-day length, and the cause being the dispute over federal funding and healthcare subsidies.

  15. How a Government Shutdown Will Affect Your Life - Time Magazine

    Used for the CBO estimate of 750,000 federal employees furloughed and the cost of $400 million in lost compensation per day, and the fact that essential workers must continue working without pay.

  16. How a Government Shutdown Will Affect Your Life - Time Magazine

    Used to establish the number of federal employees who could be furloughed (750,000) and the status of essential workers like TSA agents and air traffic controllers.

  17. Passengers start to feel bite of flight cuts amid US government shutdown - The Guardian

    Used to confirm the FAA's order for drastic cuts in commercial air traffic and the reason being to maintain safety due to air traffic controller shortages.

  18. US government shutdown is now longest in history - what impact is it having?

    Used to confirm Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's announcement of the 10% flight cuts at 40 major US airports from 7 November.

  19. Senate moves shutdown-ending deal that would ensure backpay and unwind some federal layoffs - Government Executive

    Used to confirm the back pay guarantee for furloughed workers and the fact that a sufficient number of Democrats joined Republicans to approve the bill despite leadership opposition.

  20. Congress' Job Rating Sinks to 15%; Trump's Steady at 41% - Gallup News

    Used for the decline in Congress's approval rating to 15%, the 11-point drop, and the sharp 21-point decline among Republicans.